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Staff Studies Vol. 27-28, 1997 and 1998
Inflation Differentials and the Real Exchange Rate - Dr. D. S. Wijesinghe
Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka; A Focus on the Transmission Mechanism - Dr. H. N. Thenuwara
An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka - K.M. Mahinda Siriwardana
Disparity in Regional Inflation in Sri Lanka - Ms. K. G. Kumari Dheerasinghe
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Inflation Differentials and the Real Exchange Rate D. S. Wijesinghe Abstract The real exchange rate defined as the domestic relative price of tradables to non-tradables (IRER) is usually approximated by an index of Multilateral Real Exchange Rate (MRER), which is compiled as the relative price of foreign goods to domestic goods. Masters and Ianchovichina (1998) claimed that there are two sources of systematic biases in the use of MRER as a proxy for IRER.This paper presents an index of IRER for Sri Lanka using sectoral implicit price deflators available in national production estimates and compares it with an index of MRER. The study does not find a systematic relationship between the two series. It reveals that the pass through effect of a change in the prices of internationally traded goods in domestic currency on prices of tradables in Sri Lanka is far from perfect. This implies that nominal exchange rate changes are not effective in generating proportionate changes in the prices of all tradables. The study also reveals a strong positive link between the prices of tradables and non-tradables. This link coupled with the less than perfect pass through effect explains the relative stability of IRER compared with MRER. The study finds that nominal exchange rate changes would be effective in maintaining the competitiveness of the goods actually traded. However, these changes would not necessarily provide sufficient incentives for transfers of resources between tradables and non-tradables (JEL F31, F32). |
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Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka; A Focus on the Transmission Mechanism Dr. H. N. Thenuwara Abstract Adopting inflation targeting framework was a successful new turn in monetary policy regimes of several developed countries. The objective is to maintain low inflation, although it results in abandoning other targets such as the nominal exchange rate. Existing literature shows that developing countries too could gain from adopting an inflation targeting framework. However, there are several pre-conditions required for adopting inflation targeting in developing countries. This paper shows that monetary transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka suffers from deficiencies, thus hindering the adoption of inflation targeting framework. (JEL E52, E58) The Full Paper is Available in PDF Format
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An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka K.M. Mahinda Siriwardana Abstract Sustainability of a country’s fiscal stance has become an important issue in recent policy discussions. Thus, in this paper, an attempt was made to analyse the fiscal sustainability in Sri Lanka using the Intertemporal Budget Constraint approach. The results reveal that fiscal stance is unsustainable. Conclusions arising from this study point to a further strengthening of the fiscal position. Although the recent behavior of fiscal variables is relatively favorable, this study emphasizes the insufficiency of those achievements and the necessity of a more committed effort in order to obtain a better position in fiscal management. Further strengthening of the fiscal position through enhancing revenues or reduction of expenditures are the major options (JEL H63). |
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Disparity in Regional Inflation in Sri Lanka Ms. K. G. Kumari Dheerasinghe Abstract This paper shows that there exist significant disparities among expenditure patterns of different households in different geographical areas in Sri Lanka. Although there are several indicators of inflation for the country as a whole no indicators are available for regions. This study computes consumer price indices for few selected districts and attempts to compare disparities in inflation in those districts. (JEL, E31) |
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